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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville



01/21/2019

The PRICE Futures Group JSL, SA de CV JSL, SA
Chicago, IL San Salvador, El Salvador San José, Costa Rica
(312) 264-4322 (503) 2260-7806 (506) 2282-7024
jscoville@pricegroup.com jslsadecv@comcast.net jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Jan 10

Source: CME Group 

               Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL   January    Jan. 11, 2019              354   Jan 09, 2019

SOYBEAN OIL    January    Jan. 11, 2019               52   Jan 08, 2019

SOYBEAN        January    Jan. 11, 2019              938   Jan 09, 2019

 

Alerts History

  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 237.290 MLN TNS VS      238.406 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 227.751 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 -      CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 118.800 MLN TNS VS      120.066 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 119.281 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 -      CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 63.734 MLN TNS VS      63.734 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 53.975 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/2019 SECOND-CORN CROP AREA SEEN AT 11.54 MLN HA      VS 11.54 MLN HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 11.54 MLN HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT 27.455 MLN TNS VS      27.367 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 26.810 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 91.190 MLN TNS VS      91.102 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 80.786 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,476 KG/HA VS      5,464 KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 4,857 KG/HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,322 KG/HA VS 3,354      KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/2018 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 75 MLN TNS VS 75 MLN      TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 83.865 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS SEEN 31 MLN TNS VS 31 MLN TNS IN      DECEMBER FORECAST AND 23.500 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 237.290 MLN TNS VS      238.406 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 227.751 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 -      CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 118.800 MLN TNS VS      120.066 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 119.281 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 -      CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 63.734 MLN TNS VS      63.734 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 53.975 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/2019 SECOND-CORN CROP AREA SEEN AT 11.54 MLN HA      VS 11.54 MLN HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 11.54 MLN HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT 27.455 MLN TNS VS      27.367 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 26.810 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 91.190 MLN TNS VS      91.102 MLN TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 80.786 MLN TNS IN 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,476 KG/HA VS      5,464 KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 4,857 KG/HA IN 2017/18- CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,322 KG/HA VS 3,354      KG/HA IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/2018 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 75 MLN TNS VS 75 MLN      TNS IN DECEMBER FORECAST AND 83.865 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 - CONAB
  • 10-Jan-2019      05:00:00 AM - BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS SEEN 31 MLN TNS VS 31 MLN TNS IN      DECEMBER FORECAST AND 23.500 MLN TNS FOR 2017/18 - CONAB

 

WHEAT                                    

General Comments   Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday on talk of demand from Algeria and a weaker US Dollar.  It was mostly a range trade once again yesterday, with Chicago SRW holding inside the Friday range and the other markets not straying from their ranges.  World markets were firm, and US FOB prices are at or below just about all of the competition.  Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks.  World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies.  Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year.  Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong.  Argentine Wheat is facing quality and yield losses after more rains hit growing areas last week.  It is harvest time, so the big rains are causing damage and harvest delays.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, although light rain is possible on Friday.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Egypt bought 415,000 tons of Russian Wheat and Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of optional origin Wheat yesterday. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 537, and 540 March.  Support is at 518, 511, and 504 March, with resistance at 524, 530, and 538 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 534, and 544 March.  Support is at 504, 498, and 488 March, with resistance at 511, 517, and 524 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 580 March.  Support is at 564, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

 

RICE 

General Comments:   Rice was higher again yesterday on hopes for some business with China.  News that the negotiators made very good progress and that China has agreed to buy more US agricultural goods provided a reason to buy.  Reports of less Brazil production for the coming year due to cheap prices also helped support the market as there will be less competition for sales into Central America and northern South America now.  Weekly charts still show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved.  There has been talk that China will now buy Rice as imports of US Rice are now permitted by the government, but no one thinks they will buy very much if they buy anything at all.  The purchases that might be made should be done sooner rather than later given the current thaw in the trade war. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry weather this week and more precipitation this weekend.  Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1089 March.  Support is at 1052, 1047, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1081, 1089, and 1098 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                  

General Comments:  

Overnight News:  Corn was a little higher yesterday as demand ideas for US Corn remain strong, but no new demand was confirmed.  The meetings between the US nd Chinese went well this week, and ideas are that China can start to buy Corn soon.  The Chinese apparently have committed to buy more US agricultural goods as part of the settlement..  USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials.  There has been no talk of big sales so far.  Petroleum markets are showing signs of completing a bottom on the charts now, and that means that ethanol demand could improve soon.  Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets.  Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and have been cutting back on production.  The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March.  Trends are currently sideways to up on the daily charts and also mostly up on the weekly charts.  But, Corn was not able to follow through to the upside yesterday as funds were on both sides of the market and overall basis levels in the interior are reported to be weak.  Bad weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina.  Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short term, and these areas and southern Brazil look to stay generally wet.  Central and northern Brazil should get more hot and dry weather.

Overnight News:  Ethanol production fell to 1,000 million barrels per day in the week ending January 4, versus 1,011 million the previous week and 996,000 barrels the previous year. Stocks rose to 23.3 million barrels, vs 23.2 million the previous week and 22.7 million the previous year.  Ethanol used an estimated 101.8 million bushels of Corn in the week ending Jan 4, versus 102.9 the previous week and 102.2 million the previous year.  Estimated Corn use to date for Ethanol production totals 1.903 million bushels, down 43 million or 2.2% from the previous year's pace and 17 million below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the marketing year.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 385 and 392 March.  Support is at 379, 377, and 372 March, and resistance is at 384, 387, and 390 March.  Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 283, 290, and 306 March.  Support is at 280, 277, and 274 March, and resistance is at 286, 290, and 292 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                                      

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were a little higher on word that the third day of trade negotiations with China went well.  There are more talks to come, and more difficult issues to decide, but China has apparently committed to buy more US agricultural goods as part of any deal.  There were reports that they bought up to about 1.0 million tons for government buffer stocks and is done buying for now.  There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, but that sale would bring estimated total sales to 5.0 million tons that was promised in Buenos Aires.  That idea caused the selling yesterday.  South American weather is bad as it has remained too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul.  These weather trends continue as forecasts call for more of the same the next week.  There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain.  Private estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 121 million tons right now.  That means the crop could be less than a year ago despite increased planted area.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 942 March.  Support is at 913, 910, and 900 March, and resistance is at 926, 929, and 936 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 326.00 and 336.00 March.  Support is at 319.00, 317.00, and 315.00 March, and resistance is at 327.00, 334.00, and 335.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2760 March, with resistance at 2880, 2890, and 2910 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL       

General Comments:  Canola was a little lower in range trading along with a firm Canadian Dollar and world economic fears.  Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting, and overall demand is said to be light right now.  News that China had approved GMO Canola was supportive.  The daily charts show that futures are in a sideways to down trend.  Palm Oil was lower in reaction to the MPOB reports.  MPOB did not cut production as much as the trade had expected, and exports were sharply unchanged month on month.  Production ideas are still dropping and are less than before and exports should be building due to reduced Indian import taxes.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 483.00, 480.00, and 477.00 March, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March.  Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2090 March, with resistance at 2200, 2220, and 2250 March.

 

MPOB - Malaysia palm oil supply and demand data in December

Observation period   : Dec

Frequency            : Monthly

Release date         : Thursday, 10 Jan

Forecast as follows:

Production            - 1.78 mil tonnes, Down  3.6%

Exports               - 1.44 mil tonnes, Up    4.7%

Ending Stocks         - 3.14 mil tonnes, Up    4.3%

Actual as follows:

Production            - 1.81 mil tonnes, Down  2.0%

Exports               - 1.38 mil tonnes, Up    0.6%

Ending Stocks         - 3.22 mil tonnes, Up    6.9%

Prior reading as follows:

Production            - 1.85 mil tonnes, Up   6.1%

Exports               - 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 12.9%

Ending Stocks         - 3.01 mil tonnes, Up   10.0%

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Chances for precipitation late this week or this weekend.  Temperatures should be near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

January

37 March

140 March

81 March

181 March

March Price

February

47 March

81 March

20 March

March

50 March

83 March

20 March

All basis levels are positive unless   noted as negative

Brazil Premiums

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Corn

Paranagua

Paranagua

Paranagua

Santos

January

-11 January

February

-11 March

March

44 March

-12 March-

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Jan 9

     WINNIPEG -- The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures.

     Source:  ICE Futures 

                      Price       Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          468.40    dn 17.00

Basis: Thunder Bay

1 Can                504.90    up 20.00

2 Can                491.90    up  7.00 

Basis: Vancouver

1 Can                514.90    up 30.00

2 Can                401.90    up 17.00

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - January 10

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms. 

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           530.00     00.00      Unquoted   -        -

Feb           540.00    -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Mar           547.50    -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Apr/May/Jun   570.00     00.00      Unquoted   -        - 

RBD palm olein, FOB,   Malaysian ports

Jan           535.00     00.00      Unquoted   -        -

Feb           545.00    -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Mar           552.50    -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Apr/May/Jun   575.00     00.00      Unquoted   -        - 

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           540.00    +15.00      Unquoted   -        - 

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           390.00     00.00      Unquoted   -        - 

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           2,090     -10.00      Unquoted   -        - 

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer     Change     Bid        Change   Traded

Jan             190     -01.00     Unquoted   -        - 

($1=MYR 4.0935)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Jan 10

Soybean No. 1 

Turnover: 149,516 lots, or 5.14 billion yuan 

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jan-19  3,216  3,216  3,216  3,216   3,216   3,216    0       14       192

Mar-19  3,252  3,274  3,248  3,249   3,268   3,256  -12       14     2,278

May-19  3,439  3,468  3,416  3,430   3,436   3,438    2  143,182   137,680

Jul-19  -          -      -  3,460   3,460   3,460    0        0         6

Sep-19  3,497  3,504  3,469  3,475   3,489   3,484   -5    5,942    16,442

Nov-19  3,531  3,531  3,531  3,531   3,502   3,531   29        2        14

Jan-20  3,508  3,510  3,485  3,488   3,500   3,501    1      362     2,028 

Corn 

Turnover: 351,862 lots, or 6.49 billion yuan 

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jan-19  -          -      -  1,844   1,844   1,844    0        0      3,890

Mar-19  1,848  1,849  1,838  1,843   1,847   1,840   -7   17,646     26,134

May-19  1,841  1,843  1,832  1,835   1,842   1,836   -6  270,540  1,210,994

Jul-19  1,872  1,872  1,864  1,868   1,871   1,869   -2    3,672     11,930

Sep-19  1,878  1,882  1,872  1,877   1,880   1,876   -4   59,106    319,226

Nov-19  1,906  1,906  1,896  1,903   1,902   1,900   -2      898      1,114 

Soymeal 

Turnover: 1,212,540 lots, or 32.65 billion yuan 

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jan-19  -          -      -  2,837   2,837   2,837    0        0      5,490

Mar-19  2,788  2,808  2,771  2,794   2,791   2,785   -6  188,250    169,504

May-19  2,674  2,688  2,658  2,670   2,674   2,673   -1  946,396  1,469,434

Jul-19  2,671  2,683  2,658  2,672   2,672   2,667   -5    1,136      8,338

Aug-19  2,690  2,693  2,690  2,693   2,709   2,692  -17       44        222

Sep-19  2,705  2,719  2,692  2,704   2,706   2,704   -2   75,038    354,744

Nov-19  2,719  2,726  2,708  2,720   2,721   2,716   -5    1,668      1,802

Dec-19  2,733  2,734  2,705  2,732   2,732   2,726   -6        8         46 

Palm Oil 

Turnover: 541,004 lots, or 25.26 billion yuan 

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jan-19  4,386  4,390  4,342  4,342   4,292   4,372    80    1,268     8,640

Feb-19  4,366  4,366  4,360  4,360   4,540   4,362  -178        4        28

Mar-19  -          -      -  4,486   4,668   4,486  -182        0        14

Apr-19  -          -      -  4,714   4,714   4,714     0        0        18

May-19  4,680  4,702  4,630  4,630   4,666   4,666     0  505,224   446,414

Jun-19  4,722  4,730  4,722  4,722   4,726   4,724    -2       18        64

Jul-19  4,726  4,726  4,726  4,726   4,726   4,726     0        4        26

Aug-19  -          -      -  4,728   4,728   4,728     0        0         2

Sep-19  4,704  4,722  4,664  4,670   4,704   4,696    -8   34,420    66,840

Oct-19  4,738  4,738  4,738  4,738   4,740   4,738    -2        2        26

Nov-19  4,780  4,796  4,718  4,718   4,780   4,750   -30       22       100

Dec-19  4,740  4,750  4,660  4,660   4,784   4,738   -46       42        40 

Soybean Oil 

Turnover: 544,138 lots, or 30.57 billion yuan 

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jan-19  -          -      -  5,100   5,068   5,100   32        0    15,272

Mar-19  5,162  5,220  5,162  5,170   5,180   5,182    2       14       162

May-19  5,600  5,646  5,586  5,586   5,596   5,612   16  471,188   722,630

Jul-19  5,712  5,712  5,608  5,608   5,612   5,660   48        4        18

Aug-19  -          -      -  5,612   5,612   5,612    0        0         2

Sep-19  5,634  5,672  5,626  5,626   5,638   5,646    8   72,932   168,066

Nov-19  -          -      -  5,706   5,706   5,706    0        0         6

Dec-19  -          -      -  5,702   5,702   5,702    0        0        12 

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.





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