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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville



06/21/2018

The PRICE Futures Group JSL, SA de CV JSL, SA
Chicago, IL San Salvador, El Salvador San José, Costa Rica
(312) 264-4322 (503) 2260-7806 (506) 2282-7024
jscoville@pricegroup.com jslsadecv@comcast.net jslsa@comcast.net

WHEAT                                    

General Comments   Wheat markets were mostly higher in range trading.  Black Sea prices remain the cheapest, but important growing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia have been dry.  Some beneficial rains are in the forecast for Ukraine.   Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development after some big rains this weekend.  Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas.  Western sections of the central and southern Great Plains could see some important rains.  USDA showed that fieldwork has caught up in many areas in the past week.  Progress in planting Spring Wheat moved ahead, and should increase with the warmer weather for the next week.  There will be some rains and the overall pace could remain behind normal.  Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders.  The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough, and US prices are currently above the competition. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather e3xcept for showers on Thursday.  Temperatures should be below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers again on Thursday.  Temperatures should be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average mostly above normal.   

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 482 July.  Support is at 485, 455, and 465 July, with resistance at 499, 501, and 507 July.  Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives.  Support is at 504, 496, and 495 July, with resistance at 516, 530, and 538 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 594 July.  Support is at 600, 593, and 591 July, and resistance is at 608, 617, and 620 July.

 

RICE: 

General Comments:   Rice was a little lower in quiet trading.  Sources in Arkansas say that planting has been active on warmer weather and that crops are finally starting to emerge.  Some producers switched to Soybeans for some of the area due to Price and the bad weather.  Planting is also about done along the Gulf Coast.  It remains very dry in Texas and producers are having to flush crops more than normal.  There are worries that are starting to be Heard about yield potential for the state.  Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out.  Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers and storms off and on all week.  Temperatures should be above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1222 July.  Support is at 1260, 1252, and 1247 July, with resistance at 1272, 1281, and 1289 July.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - May 16

  USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA 

                    -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            17.52        11.21       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    17.11        11.58       0.00

Brokens               10.57         ----       ----

 

CORN AND OATS                  

General Comments:   Corn closed higher.  The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continues with no real rains in sight for major growing areas.  USDA cut the Brazil production estimate last week, and there are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon.  None are currently in the forecast.  It is hard to rally the market at this time of year as the crop is getting planted in a timely way and amid generally good conditions.  USDA showed planting progress above trade expectations last night.  Strong planting progress was posible again this week, although some rains will be seen off and on through the week to keep the pace slower than some in the trade might expect.  The most affected áreas right now by planting delays are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 392 and 384 July.  Support is at 393, 389, and 388 July, and resistance is at 399, 402, and 405 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 231, 230, and 225 July, and resistance is at 239, 242, and 244 July.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                                      

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were lower.  The US and China will enter into more talks this week to try to resolve the trade dispute, and there are ideas that some agreements are posible.  No mention is made of Soybeans or other ag products yet, but ideas are that Soybeans can flow to China as well.  The tariff threats with China remain alive, and wire reports indicate that Chinese buyers are buying from anywhere but the US right now.  The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive.  China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share.  Farmers in parts of the southern Midwest are planting Soybeans, and the planting pace last week was above trade expectations.  Planting of Corn and Soybeans will increase in the north, but progress should remain slow due to big rains.  

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans mixed to down with objectives of 993, 992, and 970 July.  Support is at 1011, 1002, and 994 July, and resistance is at 1023, 1026, and 1028 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 378.00, 377.00, and 374.00 July, and resistance is at 392.00, 393.00, and 397.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3100, 3070, and 3050 July, with resistance at 3140, 3170, and 3210 July.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL       

General Comments:  Canola was mixed at the close after trading higher much of the day.  The market had tried to rally with Chicago, but fell as Soybean Oijl fell late.  New crop months have held firmer than old crop months amid lower than expected planted área estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now.  The weather is improved, and some producer selling is seen.  Charts show that trends are in a big trading range.  Farmers are selling in moderate amounts.  Palm Oil was lower.  The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand.  Exports so far this month ar down from last month..  Production is seasonally lower to help ending stocks ideas.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 536.00, 537.00, and 53\9.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2460, 2390, and 2280 August, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2520 August.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Chances for more precipitation through the week, but mostly the first half of the week,  Temnperatures mostly near normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

May

53 July

152 July

53 July

46 July

27-Jul

June

50 July

53 July

44 July

July

55 September

58 July

48 July

All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Corn

Paranagua

Paranagua

Paranagua

Paranagua

June

68 July

4-Jul

100 September

July

July

80 July

3-Jul

98 September

August

August

105 August

2-Aug

93 September

September

All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - May 15

     WINNIPEG--The following are the closing cash grain prices from

ICE Futures Canada.  

     Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,

Ontario, unless otherwise noted.  

     Source:  ICE Futures Canada  

                      Price        Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          520.11    dn    0.10

Basis: Thunder Bay

1 Can                545.50    up    1.80

2 Can                532.50    up    1.80  

Basis: Vancouver

1 Can                578.50    up    1.30

2 Can                565.50    up    1.30  

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day  

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,

204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - May 16

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May           637.50     -07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jun           637.50     -07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jul/Aug/Sep   640.00     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Oct/Nov/Dec   640.00     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May            637.50    -07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jun            637.50    -07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jul/Aug/Sep    640.00    -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Oct/Nov/Dec    640.00    -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May            620.00    -05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May            510.00    -07.50      Unquoted   -        -  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May            2,420     -20.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May            223.00    -04.00         Unquoted     -       -  

($1=MYR3.9650)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - May 16

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 235,592 lots, or 8.72 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jul-18  3,626  3,840  3,501  3,640   3,685   3,578  -107    3,826       286

Sep-18  3,729  3,731  3,668  3,686   3,749   3,694   -55  191,480   173,358

Nov-18  3,716  3,749  3,645  3,710   3,836   3,678  -158      330        10

Jan-19  3,805  3,808  3,634  3,772   3,825   3,759   -66   28,426    14,604

Mar-19  3,760  3,795  3,679  3,770   3,872   3,720  -152      504         2

May-19  3,846  3,846  3,650  3,810   3,842   3,722  -120    6,460     1,960

Jul-19  3,800  3,810  3,648  3,810   3,839   3,698  -141    1,364        18

Sep-19  3,869  3,869  3,707  3,834   3,902   3,749  -153    3,128       368

Nov-19  3,751  3,971  3,601  3,794   3,902   3,755  -147       74        16  

Corn

Turnover: 293,418 lots, or 5.22 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-18  1,755  1,761  1,753  1,758   1,752   1,757    5   39,502   199,410

Sep-18  1,766  1,771  1,765  1,770   1,762   1,767    5  192,216   797,624

Nov-18  1,793  1,798  1,790  1,795   1,785   1,795   10      362     1,434

Jan-19  1,817  1,824  1,813  1,821   1,811   1,818    7   55,988   260,012

Mar-19  1,835  1,846  1,830  1,840   1,825   1,839   14      556     2,084

May-19  1,850  1,904  1,850  1,885   1,825   1,886   61    4,794     3,434  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 3,573,720 lots, or 10.64 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                            Interest

Jul-18  2,973  2,973  2,880  2,911   2,979   2,928   -51    212,392    161,630

Aug-18  3,026  3,027  2,968  2,980   3,040   3,000   -40        118        620

Sep-18  3,028  3,030  2,932  2,971   3,041   2,974   -67  2,592,460  2,928,624

Nov-18  3,045  3,045  2,960  2,991   3,064   2,994   -70      1,116      5,174

Dec-18  3,035  3,046  3,008  3,025   3,066   3,023   -43         52        426

Jan-19  3,059  3,064  2,966  3,020   3,081   3,014   -67    714,806  1,208,924

Mar-19  2,995  2,996  2,902  2,952   3,022   2,945   -77      2,998      4,710

May-19  2,949  2,964  2,849  2,897   3,022   2,907  -115     49,778     41,652  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 351,410 lots, or 17.80 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jun-18  5,068  5,282  5,002  5,002   5,264   5,068  -196       18         6

Jul-18  4,996  4,996  4,996  4,996   5,150   4,996  -154        2         2

Aug-18  -          -      -  5,068   5,068   5,068     0        0        32

Sep-18  5,088  5,092  5,034  5,066   5,084   5,062   -22  311,032   517,730

Oct-18  -          -      -  5,114   5,114   5,114     0        0         6

Nov-18  -          -      -  5,126   5,126   5,126     0        0        16

Dec-18  -          -      -  5,088   5,088   5,088     0        0         0

Jan-19  5,102  5,118  5,072  5,090   5,108   5,092   -16   40,090   105,400

Feb-19  -          -      -  5,202   5,202   5,202     0        0         2

Mar-19  -          -      -  5,108   5,108   5,108     0        0         0

Apr-19  -          -      -  5,250   5,250   5,250     0        0        18

May-19  5,150  5,180  5,136  5,180   5,250   5,160   -90      268       226  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 455,834 lots, or 26.29 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-18  -          -      -  5,728   5,728   5,728    0        0       126

Aug-18  -          -      -  5,826   5,826   5,826    0        0        10

Sep-18  5,768  5,778  5,720  5,740   5,784   5,742  -42  379,490   930,718

Nov-18  -          -      -  5,882   5,882   5,882    0        0        26

Dec-18  -          -      -  5,908   5,950   5,908  -42        0        22

Jan-19  5,918  5,922  5,860  5,876   5,926   5,886  -40   74,120   210,412

Mar-19  6,060  6,060  6,032  6,032   6,078   6,044  -34        6        70

May-19  6,028  6,030  5,960  5,974   6,078   5,990  -88    2,218     1,830  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.





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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

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