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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville



10/22/2018

The PRICE Futures Group JSL, SA de CV JSL, SA
Chicago, IL San Salvador, El Salvador San José, Costa Rica
(312) 264-4322 (503) 2260-7806 (506) 2282-7024
jscoville@pricegroup.com jslsadecv@comcast.net jslsa@comcast.net

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report

    WASHINGTON--Following are key numbers from the USDA's crop report Tuesday

and how the government's estimates compared to analysts' forecasts in a Wall

Street Journal survey. 

U.S. 2018 Corn, Soybean Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate    Average       Range       USDA 2017   USDA 2017

Corn Production     14,040      14,072   14,007-14,215     14,040       14,604

Soybean Product      4,280       4,293     4,275-4,430      4,280        4,392 

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate    Average       Range       USDA 2017   USDA 2017

Corn Yield          174.0 *      174.2     173.1-176.0      174.0       176.6

Soybean Yield        48.5 *       48.6      48.5-50.0       48.5         49.1 

*** 

U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels) 

2017-18            Tuesday's

                    Estimate      Average          Range          USDA May

Corn                 2,102         2,163        2,125-2,208         2,182

Soybeans               505           523           473-550            530

Wheat                1,080         1,079        1,060-1,100         1,070 

                   Tuesday's

2018-19             Estimate      Average          Range          USDA May

Corn                 1,577         1,642        1,425-1,790         1,682

Soybeans              385           435           390-702            415

Wheat                 946           957           820-994            955 

**** 

World Stockpiles (million metric tons)  

2017-18

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate      Average          Range          USDA May

Corn                 192.7         193.4        190.0-195.0         194.9

Soybeans              92.5          91.2         88.3-93.0          92.2

Wheat                272.4         270.3        268.0-271.0         270.5 

2018-19

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate      Average          Range          USDA May

Corn                 154.7         157.3        150.7-160.0         159.2

Soybeans              87.0          86.3         83.5-91.3          86.7

Wheat                266.2         263.7        260.0-268.0         264.3 

**** 

2018-19 Wheat Production (million bushels) 

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate   Average       Range       USDA May   USDA 2017-18

All Wheat            1,827      1,820     1,754-1,870      1,821       1,741

All Winter           1,198      1,187     1,127-1,228      1,192       1,269

Hard Red Winter       650        641        585-676         647         750

Soft Red Winter       316        319        314-325         315         292

White Winter          232        228        202-242         229         227 

**** 

2017-18 Brazil Production (million metric tons) 

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate      Average          Range          USDA May

Corn                  85.0          84.0         73.9-87.0          87.0

Soybeans             119.0         117.5        117.0-119.0         117.0 

2017-18 Argentina Production (million metric tons) 

                   Tuesday's

                    Estimate      Average          Range          USDA May

Corn                  33.0          32.4         31.0-33.0          33.0

Soybeans              37.0          37.8         36.0-39.0          39.0

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary-Jun 12

    U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,

cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and

Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)

bales.

   Projections based on trends and analysts' judgments, not survey

date. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. 

              ======US======          ================WORLD==============

             Ending Stocks            Exports            Production

           18-19 17-18 16-17 : 18-19  17-18  16-17    18-19    17-18    16-17

Soybeans     385   505   302 :162.37 152.11 147.54   355.24   336.70   350.84

 Brazil       na    na    na : 72.95  74.65  63.14   118.00   119.00   114.60

 Argentina    na    na    na :  8.00   3.50   7.03    56.00    37.00    57.80

 China        na    na    na :  0.15   0.15   0.11    14.10    14.20    12.90

Soyoil     2,176 2,176 1,711 : 11.19  10.71  11.26    58.38    55.81    53.79

Corn       1,577 2,102 2,293 :156.02 151.51 159.77 1,052.42 1,034.77 1,078.43

 China        na    na    na :  0.05   0.05   0.08   225.00   215.89   219.55

 Argentina    na    na    na : 27.00  25.00  25.99    41.00    33.00    41.00

 S. Africa    na    na    na :  2.20   2.10   2.29    14.00    13.50    17.55

Cotton(a)   4.70  4.20  2.75 : 41.07  40.13  37.40   120.40   122.76   106.63

All Wheat    946 1,080 1,181 :187.32 182.80 183.28   744.69   758.22   751.99

 China        na    na    na :  1.20   1.00   0.75   129.00   129.77   128.85

 EU 27        na    na    na : 29.00  24.00  27.32   149.40   151.58   145.37

 Canada       na    na    na : 23.50  23.00  20.16    32.50    30.00    32.14

 Argentina    na    na    na : 14.20  12.80  13.83    19.50    18.00    18.40

 Australia    na    na    na : 17.00  15.00  22.64    24.00    21.50    31.82

 Russia       na    na    na : 35.00  40.50  27.81    68.50    84.99    72.53

 Ukraine      na    na    na : 17.00  17.20  18.11    26.50    26.98    26.79

Sorghum       27    29    33 :    na     na     na       na       na       na

Barley        47    65   106 :    na     na     na       na       na       na

Oats          29    24    50 :    na     na     na       na       na       na

Rice        41.5  37.3  46.0 : 49.35  48.25  47.28   487.35   488.31   486.66

 

DJ Brazil Raises Soybean Harvest Estimate, Cuts Corn Crop Forecast

  By Jeffrey T. Lewis 

  SÃO PAULO--Brazilian agriculture agency Conab raised its estimate for the country's soybean harvest, helped by a record crop in the major producing state of Mato Grosso, and cut its forecast for the corn harvest.

  Brazilian farmers produced 118 million metric tons of soybeans in the season, Conab said Tuesday, also a record, and up from its forecast of 117 million tons in May. Brazil produced 114.1 million tons of soybeans in the 2016-2017 season, the previous record.

  The soybean harvest for this year in Brazil is finished except for a few small areas in some states, Conab said.

  Conab forecast a total corn crop of 85 million metric tons in the 2017-2018 season, down from the 89.2 million metric tons the agency forecast in May.

  Brazil's mild winters allow the country's farmers to plant two crops each year, and farmers often plant a soy crop in the summer and a corn crop in the winter. If planting of the soy crop begins late, as it did in the 2017-2018 season, that shortens the window for planting corn for the second crop and can reduce the size of the second crop, Conab said.

 

WHEAT                                    

General Comments   Wheat markets were higher in reaction to the USDAS reports.  Winter Wheat production was increased slightly, but not as much as trade expectations as the Midwest SRW crop was smaller than expected and was actually smaller than last month.  Ending stocks were lower, especially for the new crop year that is getting underway now.  World estimates showed a big reduction in production from Russia.  The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia, and USDA made no real changes to East Europe production yesterday.  These areas remain mostly hot and dry.  Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed.  On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains.  The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains.  Yield reports have been highly variable, but the talk is that the crop yields are a little higher than current trade projections.  Yields have ranged anywhere from in the teens to about 50 bushels per acre.  Protein levels have been strong as usual during warm and dry growing seasons.  The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains.  Reports indicate that some initial harvest of the Soft Red Winter crop is underway in the Midwest, and yields should be good.  The upside was limited by fears of a trade war with Canada and Mexico along with some general selling seen in the Chicago markets.  

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some showers are posible in the north and east over the next couple of days.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see showers off and on into next week.  Temperatures should be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on through the weekend.  Temperatures should average mostly above normal.   

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555 and 583 July.  Support is at 528, 519, and 510 July, with resistance at 538, 545, and 554 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 571 and 596 July.  Support is at 546, 539, and 531 July, with resistance at 555, 565, and 568 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 578 and 559 July.  Support is at 588, 581, and 574 July, and resistance is at 597, 605, and 608 July.

 

RICE: 

General Comments:   Rice was lower again yesterday in most months, but July rallied again in a squeeze atmosphere and the July – September spread now shows that July is at a significant Premium to September.  It shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out.  There was a report of a new tender for 17,000 tons of milled Rice to account for the July moves.  USDA made no real changes to any of the long rain estimates in its monthly supply and demand reports.  It did cut demand for médium and short grain rice and added the change tothe ending stocks for this year.  No changes of importance were made to new crop estimates.  Changes will wait until next month and after the reléase of the quarterly stocks data and the plantings report at the end of June.  Trade tensions remain a focal point as Mexico is the largest buyer of US Rice.  Mexico announced some of the markets it would use to retaliate against the US tariffs, and grains were not on the list.  There were reports that Mexico will include a tariff on milled Rice, but not Rough Rice.  Mexico mostly buys Rough Rice. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible this weekend.  Temperatures should be above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1215 and 1310 July.  Support is at 1169, 1158, and 1126 July, with resistance at 1196, 1208, and 1218 July.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Jun 13

  USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA  

                    -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            17.43        11.15       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    17.04        11.53       0.00

Brokens               10.51         ----       ----

 

CORN AND OATS                  

General Comments:   Corn closed higher in reaction to the USDA supply and demand estimates.  USDA showed more export demand for this year and increased demand for industrial and etanol uses in the next crop year.  Ending stocks estimates were cut by 80 million bushels for the current crop year and by over 100 million for the next crop year.  The market will now have topay more attention to the Midwest weather and see a big crop coming.  Pricers could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is there.  USDA condition ratings were high again this week, and the weekend saw many dry áreas get some very beneficial precipitation.  However, there are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western áreas.  Some northern áreas have had way too much rain, with this área mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border.  Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for etanol is expected to remain strong.  The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas.  There are chances for that crop to get smaller if rains do not appear.  There are no rains in the forecast. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 372, 366, and 363 July, and resistance is at 379, 381, and 385 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 238, 236, and 234 July, and resistance is at 246, 248, and 251 July.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                                      

General Comments:  Soybeans were fractionally higher and Soybean Meal closed higher in reaction to the USDA supply and demand estimates.  Soybean Oil was lower.  USDA increased crush demand for this year and the increase flowed into next year.  Ending stocks for next year are on the tight side.  The Soybeans really ws very limited due to ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand.  The weather in the Midwest improved for both Corn and Soybeans as some dry áreas got some very beneficial rains.  Crop ratings stayed higher in the USDA reports  Monday night.  The Chinese made an offer to resolve the trade dispute with the US, but no response has been seen yet from Washington.  The offer included purchases of up to $70 billion in agricultural and energy goods, but made no mention of intelectual property rights.  The issue of intelectual property rights seems to be a big problema to get resolved, and it might be difficult as the Chinese say they are abiding by all agreements in the area.  China said that the offer would be withdrawn and no longer valid if tariffs are instituted in response.  The Trump administration previously said it was moving ahead with tariffs even though the negotiations between the two countries were going very well. 

Overnight News:   USDA said that Unknown Destinations bought 177,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 948 July.  Support is at 952, 940, and 928 July, and resistance is at 965, 972, and 977 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 350.00 July.  Support is at 350.00, 346.00, and 340.00 July, and resistance is at 361.00, 364.00, and 367.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July.  Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2930 July, with resistance at 3070, 3100, and 3160 July.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL       

General Comments:  Canola was a little higher in reaction to the USDA reports.  The Canadian Dollar was a little lower, and conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies.  Some áreas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week.  It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon.  Most think overall conditions are good.  Funds have been the best sellers and have been liquidating long positions.  Palm Oil was lower on ideas of big production and lackluster demand.  The MPOB data was negarive to prices, and the exports reported sofar by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month.  The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand.  Exports so far this month ar down from last month.  Production is seasonally lower to help ending stocks ideas. 

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 516.00, 514.00, and 510.00 July, with resistance at 520.00, 522.00, and 525.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2240 August, with resistance at 2360, 2390, and 2410 August.

 

MPOB Monthly Supply and Demand Data:

Observation period   : May

Frequency            : Monthly

Release date         : Monday, 11 Jun

Forecast as follows:

Production            - 1.49 mil tonnes, Down 4.4%

Exports               - 1.40 mil tonnes, Down 9.2%

Ending Stocks         - 2.09 mil tonnes, Down 3.8%

Actual as follows:

Production            - 1.53 mil tonnes, Down  2.1%

Exports               - 1.29 mil tonnes, Down 15.7%

Ending Stocks         - 2.17 mil tonnes, Down  0.5%

Prior reading as follows:

Production            - 1.56 mil tonnes, Down 0.6%

Exports               - 1.54 mil tonnes, Down 1.9%

Ending Stocks         - 2.17 mil tonnes, Down 6.5%

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry, but light precipitation is possible every few days, mostly in the north and east.  Temnperatures mostly near normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

June

53 July

155 July

60 July

52 July

24-Jul

July

55 September

62 July

53 July

August

50 September

48 September

57 August

All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Corn

Paranagua

Paranagua

Paranagua

Paranagua

July

90 July

5-Jul

August

110 August

4-Aug

85 September

September

4-Sep

85 September

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Jun 12

     WINNIPEG--The following are the closing cash grain prices from ICE

Futures Canada. 

     Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,

Ontario, unless otherwise noted. 

     Source:  ICE Futures Canada 

                      Price         Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          508.70    dn    0.80

Basis: Thunder Bay

1 Can                532.00    up    0.30

2 Can                519.00    up    0.30 

Basis: Vancouver

1 Can                557.00    up    0.30

2 Can                544.00    up    0.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day  

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - June 13

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jun           605.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jul           605.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Aug/Sep       607.50     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Oct/Nov/Dec   615.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Jun           607.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jul           607.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Aug/Sep       610.00     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Oct/Nov/Dec   617.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jun           602.50     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jun           490.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jun           2,340      -10.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer      Change     Bid        Change   Traded

Jun             199      -01.00      Unquoted   -        -  

($1=MYR 3.9980)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Jun 13

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 178,304 lots, or 6.40 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-18  3,475  3,512  3,475  3,512   3,499   3,499    0        6       286

Sep-18  3,584  3,598  3,562  3,582   3,577   3,578    1  162,882   221,750

Nov-18  -          -      -  3,638   3,638   3,638    0        0         6

Jan-19  3,681  3,704  3,670  3,687   3,680   3,685    5   15,260    37,018

Mar-19  -          -      -  3,763   3,763   3,763    0        0         2

May-19  3,771  3,786  3,767  3,780   3,773   3,776    3      142     2,420

Jul-19  -          -      -  3,761   3,761   3,761    0        0         8

Sep-19  3,837  3,839  3,828  3,839   3,820   3,835   15       14       216

Nov-19  -          -      -  3,822   3,822   3,822    0        0        14  

Corn  

Turnover: 317,066 lots, or 5.64 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-18  1,771  1,772  1,766  1,767   1,767   1,769    2   29,604    95,608

Sep-18  1,753  1,762  1,752  1,756   1,753   1,757    4  177,456   608,812

Nov-18  1,787  1,795  1,786  1,788   1,787   1,790    3    7,988    29,342

Jan-19  1,806  1,814  1,806  1,809   1,808   1,810    2   94,214   419,278

Mar-19  1,849  1,851  1,841  1,841   1,847   1,845   -2      560     3,500

May-19  1,873  1,884  1,873  1,878   1,873   1,878    5    7,244    52,784  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 2,040,754 lots, or 60.30 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Jul-18  2,799  2,833  2,797  2,818   2,799   2,811   12     31,674     46,506

Aug-18  2,899  2,918  2,899  2,918   2,892   2,908   16         22        628

Sep-18  2,910  2,958  2,907  2,940   2,904   2,926   22  1,158,428  2,152,148

Nov-18  2,954  2,999  2,954  2,984   2,954   2,973   19    145,992    126,084

Dec-18  3,011  3,018  3,011  3,018   3,003   3,012    9         24        398

Jan-19  3,003  3,052  3,001  3,036   2,996   3,023   27    640,966  1,608,070

Mar-19  2,916  2,946  2,910  2,936   2,910   2,939   29      3,396      7,838

May-19  2,802  2,825  2,794  2,818   2,802   2,809    7     60,252    312,398  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 596,378 lots, or 29.13 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jun-18  -          -      -  5,206   5,206   5,206     0        0         0

Jul-18  -          -      -  5,106   5,106   5,106     0        0         0

Aug-18  -          -      -  5,236   5,236   5,236     0        0        12

Sep-18  4,912  4,918  4,826  4,854   4,956   4,856  -100  467,876   522,090

Oct-18  -          -      -  4,926   5,012   4,926   -86        0        10

Nov-18  -          -      -  5,124   5,228   5,124  -104        0        12

Dec-18  5,028  5,028  5,028  5,028   5,140   5,028  -112        2         8

Jan-19  5,020  5,024  4,948  4,966   5,054   4,974   -80  121,696   183,474

Feb-19  -          -      -  5,004   5,084   5,004   -80        0         2

Mar-19  -          -      -  5,030   5,156   5,030  -126        0         0

Apr-19  -          -      -  5,156   5,238   5,156   -82        0        18

May-19  5,142  5,142  5,090  5,100   5,178   5,104   -74    6,804    10,458  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 823,284 lots, or 46.81 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jul-18  5,536  5,536  5,526  5,530   5,686   5,530  -156       18       152

Aug-18  5,646  5,646  5,646  5,646   5,920   5,646  -274        2        10

Sep-18  5,684  5,692  5,612  5,632   5,732   5,640   -92  609,414   871,866

Nov-18  5,852  5,852  5,852  5,852   5,858   5,852    -6        4        34

Dec-18  5,832  5,832  5,832  5,832   5,914   5,832   -82        2        18

Jan-19  5,856  5,856  5,784  5,810   5,894   5,812   -82  209,398   360,182

Mar-19  -          -      -  5,990   6,074   5,990   -84        0        64

May-19  5,948  5,948  5,880  5,908   5,986   5,904   -82    4,446    23,794  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.





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141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769-7021 | (312) 264-4322 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. - an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

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